Political Communication 6794
Eli F. Bleich
Journal Entries 11-14 – 12-4

The elections in Venezuela exposed a major problem for Chavez. Districts he should have won, he did not.

Included in those districts that did not support Chavista candidates, were many urban environments, where Chavez’s policies of support of the poor should have carried the day. Yet even among these heavily Chavez populated areas, the poor are beginning to abandon… or at least begin to question… the revolution.

Chavez, now 2 years into his second term (4 years to go) having suffered this defeat immediately on the heals of having also lost the constitutional referendum (which would have allowed Chavez to remain in power for life) will only serve to prepare him for the battle ahead, as there is no doubt that Chavez will not relinquish power at the end of his term. It is just a matter of how he will have to go about retaining that power.

When Castro took power in Cuba, he immediately took control of the media and clamped down on any opposition messages. This was relatively easy to do, since there was not any history of a free media to start with. Chavez has had to attack the media (as opposition) from a different angle… clamping down and/or closing Globovision, Venevision, RCTV, Univeral, El Nacional, and Tal Cual (among others) through powers granted him by the National Assembly (100% controlled by Chavez at the time of his re-election) which made it possible for him to close any media source critical of himself as president.

He has done this very effectively; leaving just enough token opposition to make it appear that there is really still freedom of the press. In truth this is not the case, as everyone in Venezuela is afraid to oppose him at this time.

Chavez makes the mistake however of trying to tread too cautiously against the media, in contrast to Castro, who did not care what people thought about his actions in that regard. Castro is the more Machiavellian of the two… and the more successful. But Chavez is a quick study.

His recent electoral loses will certainly convince him of that, and we will certainly see far more curtailment of the media… other than for disseminating his own message… going forward.

Given the outcome of these two election defeats… following his own re-election success… Chavez will soon disregard any semblance of regard for any opposition, and simply shut it all down.