Political Communication
Journal Entries 9/11 – 9/17

Even with all the hoopla of the conventions, which did bring McCain up in the pools, Obama still leads in PA, CO, MN, and MI. This is happening outside of the noise of the national campaign being fought in the media. If Obama still leads with about 48 or 49% of the vote by the end of the campaign, the election is his.

Obama will start to climb back up as a result of Lehman Bros, as it puts the focus back on one of the issues where he can contrast his position with McCain.

Obama should be more specific. “I would…” The Republicans (Busch/McCain) are the party of no regulation. Look what it got us”

Campaigns are all played out and communicated in the context of everyday events. Some come from outside the campaign (Lehman Bros) others are created inside the campaign in order to position the candidates views against the public’s attention.

Political communication requires events that give the opportunity to demonstrate real proposals and solutions for problems that people can measure against the event.

I find it extremely interesting that the crises around baby formula and milk in China is in the news both here, and in China. This is a huge shift in public policy for China, which has always controlled the message both internally and externally. Why would a government that can control a message allow a negative message like this out?

A problem with Obama’s speeches in relationship to ordinary people is that they lack Pathos. He should be saying “This is not about Wall Street… It is about people, real people who’s life savings have just been cut in half… who’s jobs have been lost… who’s future is now in jeopardy” In other words, making a connection to the lives of the people.

In 1980, we took the Chrysler Bailout and turned it into “This is not about saving big corporations… it’s about saving the lives, and the jobs, of ordinary Americans”

Elections are fertile opportunities for other political messages to tag onto campaign messages in an often subtle and insidious way. API (American Petroleum Institute) which represents Big Oil, continually advertises about using American Oil and Energy, hooking onto, and in turn also supporting McCain’s (and the Republican) position on dirlling and exploitation of resources in the US. Others doing the same are the WE ads, and the Areva ad… which promotes a favorable impression of Nuclear Energy development… without even mentioning what it’s about.

Obama campaign needs to tie McCain not only to Bush, but to the Republican Party. People already know what Republican means (Business, De-Regulation, War, etc.). This will put more focus on policy and direction, and counter the maverick argument.

To the extent that the Obama campaign can continue to make the election about McCain, I think it will find traction (just as the McCain campaign has tried to make it about Obama). They have done well with it this week, calling into question McCain’s understanding of issues, etc.

McCain presents a more Ethos based argument derivative of his experience and age. Obama, if anything, has presented a Logos based argument, which has only served to draw the criticism of his being elitist and intellectual. Americans don’t like people they think are smart(er) than themselves.

California has placed an initiative on the ballot to rescind the Same Sex Marriage ruling of the Supreme Court. This has more to do with bringing out a republican fundamentalist vote than with the issue itself. Remember that in 2004, a ballot initiatve aimed at defining marriage as a union between parties of separate sex was also on the ballot of numerous state… including Ohio. More people came out to vote for that, than for president… although once in the voting booth… they also voted for Bush (South Western Ohio in particular). Watch for states that place similar fundamentalist questions on their ballots to increase Republican turnout.

Obama should also be arguing (pathos again) the relationship between this financial crises and the reduction of the net-worth of millions of Americans as an example of what privatization of Social Security (as supported by McCain) would mean to the income of millions of older Americans… whose checks for the next several months would be much lower… if McCain had his way. “This is why the policies and practices of the Republican Party cannot be trusted to take care of ordinary people.

Biden is going to continue to make mistakes along the way. Live with it. He brings more than he gives away.

Bush’s speech today (Ethos based) showed little Ethos… or impact on the situation. Immediately following its delivery, the market fell 50 points. It was far too short, and inconsequential to allaying fears on the part of Wall Street or Main Street. He also ran away from it (literally) by taking no questions.
It does illustrate, however, the fact that if you give a “one sentence” statement, the media has no choice but to use it exactly as you present it. No selection of what they think most important, or distortion of your meanin